Prediction market intelligence

One input among several — not Airisk's own forecast

PREDICTION MARKET SIGNALS

5 MARKETS

Live odds, shown for reference — sourced from an external market, not calculated by Airisk.

Polymarket

AI bubble burst by Dec 2026

“AI bubble burst in 2026?”

7.8%chance, per Polymarket
LIVE$28.4K 24h vol$2.47M total volUpdated 3m ago
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Polymarketoutcome: $220 billion

AI capex pullback in 2026

“Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?”

77.0%chance, per Polymarket
LIVE$40 24h vol$3.0K total volUpdated 5m ago
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Polymarketoutcome: <$4.00T

Nvidia major drawdown

“Will Nvidia's market capitalization be less than $4.00T at end of 2026?”

5.9%chance, per Polymarket
LIVE$560 24h vol$4.7K total volUpdated 5m ago
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Polymarket

OpenAI valuation event

“OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?”

83.4%chance, per Polymarket
LIVE$29.2K total volUpdated 5m ago
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Polymarket

US recession by 2026

“US recession by end of 2026?”

6.5%chance, per Polymarket
LIVE$930 24h vol$2.32M total volUpdated 5m ago
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◢ MARKET DATA DISCLOSURE
Odds shown above are sourced from Polymarket, a third-party prediction market, and refresh live/periodically — they are not calculated, verified, or endorsed by Airisk. Airisk may earn a referral fee when you click through to Polymarket from this page. This market data is structurally separate from and does not influence, feed into, or alter Airisk's own composite risk score (see the homepage for that).