T1-01 HYPERSCALER FCF VS. CAPEX $15.8BT1-02 HYPERSCALER BOND COVER RATIO 2.5xT1-03 ORACLE 5Y CDS 203bpT1-04 COMPOSITE PROBABILITY OF A BURST 55.89%T1-05 FED FUNDS RATE PATH / MEETING ODDS 3.63%T2-06 AI DEBT SHARE OF IG BOND INDEX 14%T2-07 CAPEX VS. CONSUMER AI REVENUE GAP 18.25xT2-08 ICE BOFA US HY OAS 2.67%T2-09 COMBINED HYPERSCALER CAPEX GROWTH 91.21%T2-10 HEADLINE HYPERSCALER EARNINGS GROWTH 18.89%T1-01 HYPERSCALER FCF VS. CAPEX $15.8BT1-02 HYPERSCALER BOND COVER RATIO 2.5xT1-03 ORACLE 5Y CDS 203bpT1-04 COMPOSITE PROBABILITY OF A BURST 55.89%T1-05 FED FUNDS RATE PATH / MEETING ODDS 3.63%T2-06 AI DEBT SHARE OF IG BOND INDEX 14%T2-07 CAPEX VS. CONSUMER AI REVENUE GAP 18.25xT2-08 ICE BOFA US HY OAS 2.67%T2-09 COMBINED HYPERSCALER CAPEX GROWTH 91.21%T2-10 HEADLINE HYPERSCALER EARNINGS GROWTH 18.89%
STATUS: OPERATIONAL
LIVE
AI BUBBLE INDEX · CYCLE STATUS
Status: Euphoria
A composite of the 10 tracked Tier 1 / Tier 2 signals below. The composite formula is not yet finalized — for MVP this figure is entered manually via Supabase.

TEN-SIGNAL DIAGNOSTIC

10 SIGNALS
3 ELEVATED 5 WATCH 2 SUPPORT 0 NOT SCORED
TIER 1CORE SIGNALfastest-moving · tests the thesis directly
T1-01Hyperscaler FCF vs. Capex
▼ SUPPORT
$15.8B — Microsoft (SEC EDGAR) · Core test of whether AI capex is being funded by operating cash flow.
QUARTERLYretrieved 4d agoSEC EDGAR
T1-02Hyperscaler Bond Cover Ratio
● WATCH
2.5x — Amazon bond tap · Forward test of investor demand for new AI-linked debt.
QUARTERLYretrieved 4d agoManual / Curated Research
T1-03Oracle 5Y CDS
▲ ELEVATED
203bp — Oracle Corp · Single-name AI credit-stress canary.
DAILYretrieved 4d agoManual / Curated Research
T1-04Composite Probability of a Burst
● WATCH
55.89% — Composite (calculated) · Top-line synthesized probability of a disorderly correction; entered manually for MVP pending a defined composite formula.
LIVEretrieved 4d agoComposite (calculated)
T1-05Fed Funds Rate Path / Meeting Odds
● WATCH
3.63% — Fed funds target midpoint · Macro overlay on funding cost and valuation.
DAILYretrieved 4d agoFRED
TIER 2STRUCTURAL CONTEXTslower-moving · explains scale and exposure
T2-06AI Debt Share of IG Bond Index
● WATCH
14% — JPMorgan US Liquid Index · Systemic exposure of investment-grade credit to AI-linked debt.
QUARTERLYretrieved 4d agoManual / Curated Research
T2-07Capex vs. Consumer AI Revenue Gap
● WATCH
18.25x — Capex/revenue ratio (derived) · Simple visual of infrastructure spend versus current AI monetization.
QUARTERLYretrieved 4d agoManual / Curated Research
T2-08ICE BofA US HY OAS
▼ SUPPORT
2.67% — BAMLH0A0HYM2 · Broad market credit baseline.
DAILYretrieved 4d agoFRED
T2-09Combined Hyperscaler Capex Growth
▲ ELEVATED
91.21% — Combined (5 hyperscalers, SEC EDGAR) · Shows whether infrastructure spending is accelerating or moderating.
QUARTERLYretrieved 4d agoSEC EDGAR
T2-10Headline Hyperscaler Earnings Growth
▲ ELEVATED
18.89% — Combined (5 hyperscalers, total revenue, SEC EDGAR) · Bull-case counterweight: revenue and operating growth at the core companies.
QUARTERLYretrieved 4d agoSEC EDGAR